Auction clearance rates just hit their lowest level since April 2020, hours before an expected rate rise. What it means if you're buying or selling

Fewer than half the homes taken to auction across Australia's capital cities last week sold, according to Cotality's preliminary figures. At 47.2%, it was the weakest preliminary clearance rate since April 2020, when pandemic lockdowns brought auctions to a near standstill. And it came just days before the Reserve Bank's November meeting, where almost every economist expects another rate rise. Here's what the weekend's numbers show, why so many buyers are waiting, and what it could mean if you're buying, selling or holding a mortgage.

Please note: we published this on the morning of Tuesday 3 November, ahead of the Reserve Bank's 2:00pm (Adelaide time) announcement. It describes what was expected, not the result. We'll cover the decision, and what it means for borrowers, in a separate article this afternoon.

The weekend's numbers

Cotality's preliminary results for the week to Sunday 1 November show the combined capital city clearance rate slipping to 47.2%, from 48.4% the week before. Cotality says that's the lowest preliminary result since April 2020, with buyers facing the likelihood of another rate rise this week.

It wasn't a particularly busy week either. Across the capitals, 1,735 homes went to auction, 7.3% fewer than the previous week and 17.7% fewer than at the same time last year. Part of the drop came from Melbourne, where volumes usually dip ahead of the Melbourne Cup holiday. Every other capital recorded more auctions than the week before.

Spring hasn't delivered the usual lift. The average preliminary clearance rate through spring so far is 51.0%, slightly below the winter average of 52.3%. Normally, spring brings more buyers as well as more sellers.

Here's how the capitals compared on Cotality's preliminary figures:

Two points are worth keeping in mind. First, these are preliminary figures, an early read based on the results reported so far, and they can change once Cotality collects the rest later in the week. Second, different data providers count auctions differently, so it's best to compare Cotality's figures with Cotality's own earlier results, as we've done here. Our 27 October article covered the previous week's 48.4%.

More auctions are being pulled

The clearance rate only tells part of the story. According to the Australian Financial Review, citing Cotality analysis, almost a quarter of the auctions scheduled for the week were pulled, up from 11.2% a year earlier. Withdrawn auctions are a sign that some sellers aren't getting the interest or the price they hoped for, and would rather sell another way, or wait.

Auction results are often watched as an early signal for prices. AAP noted that clearance rates below 60% are generally seen as pointing to a falling market. That lines up with Cotality's October Home Value Index, which showed national values falling for a seventh straight month, as we covered in our 2 November article.

Why so many buyers are waiting

Buyers aren't short of choice. There's more stock on the market, homes are taking longer to sell, and sellers are negotiating more. The problem is confidence and borrowing power. Each rate rise reduces how much a lender will offer the same household, and it lifts the repayments on any loan they do take on.

Ray White's Thomas McGlynn told AAP that buyer behaviour was changing heading into the end of the year, with the Reserve Bank's decision approaching. "Buyers are already navigating greater choice and considerable uncertainty, and while the outcome of that decision may influence confidence, it won't change the importance of sellers responding to the market in front of them," he said.

In other words, whatever the RBA does, the market sellers face this month is a softer one than earlier in the year.

What was expected ahead of the decision

Going into the meeting, a rise was widely expected, but not certain.

• Reuters poll: 31 of 32 economists expected a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.85%, which would be the fifth rise of 2026. That group included all four major banks. Markets were pricing roughly an 85% chance of a rise.
• The lone hold call: Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Australia, Phil O'Donoghue, expected the RBA to hold. His argument was that the latest inflation figures were broadly in line with the RBA's own forecasts, unemployment had already risen to 4.7%, and the Board could afford to wait for more data in December.
• Finder survey: 30 of 40 experts (75%) expected a rise. But only 22 of 40 (55%) thought the RBA should raise rates. 32 of 40 expected the cash rate to be above 4.60% by March 2027, and 11 of 40 expected a further rise after November, most of them in February 2027. Bendigo Bank's David Robertson tipped a hold and said a split decision was likely.

If rates do rise, 4.85% would be the highest cash rate since 2008. Canstar estimates a household with a $600,000 mortgage would be paying about $456 a month more in interest than at the start of 2026, according to AAP. We set out what a 0.25% rise would cost across a range of loan sizes in our 29 October article.

For many borrowers, the bigger signal may be what the RBA says about what comes next. We looked at whether 4.85% might be the peak in our 1 November article.

Rule changes for agents

There's another change on the way for buyers and sellers in New South Wales. From 17 November, new underquoting rules require agents to include prices in advertisements and keep records showing how they arrived at price estimates. Penalties for underquoting rise to $110,000 or three times the agent's commission. Further changes due in February will require agents to prepare a statement of information explaining their estimates. Victoria already has reserve-price transparency rules in place. For buyers, clearer price guides should make it easier to judge which properties are realistically within budget.

What it means for you

• Buying? With fewer homes selling under the hammer and more auctions being pulled, there may be room to negotiate before or after auction day. But don't stretch on the strength of an old pre-approval. A 0.25% rise usually trims borrowing capacity, so get your pre-approval rechecked once the decision is known and lenders update their rates.
• Selling? A sub-50% clearance rate in most capitals points to a softer market. Price to what buyers are paying now, not what a neighbour got earlier in the year, and think about whether auction or private sale suits your property. If you're buying before you sell, sort out bridging finance and buffers early. Our 23 October article covers some recent lender changes, including on bridging.
• Paying off a mortgage? If rates rise, lenders usually announce their changes within days and apply them a week or two later, and start dates differ by lender. Our 8 October article explains how the timing works. Check your new repayment in your banking app once your lender confirms.
• Thinking about refinancing? Falling values can push your loan-to-value ratio higher, which can affect the rate you're offered. It's worth knowing roughly where you stand before you apply.
• Feeling stretched? Talk to your lender early. Lenders generally have more options if you contact them before you miss a repayment.

Key dates

• Tuesday 3 November 2026, 2:00pm Adelaide time (2:30pm AEDT): RBA cash rate decision and Statement on Monetary Policy. We'll cover the outcome this afternoon.
• Tuesday 17 November 2026: first stage of the NSW underquoting reforms begins.
• Late November (expected around 25 November): ABS monthly inflation figures for October.
• Early December: Cotality's Home Value Index for November.
• Tuesday 8 December 2026: the RBA's last decision for 2026.

Related reading

• Home values just fell for a seventh straight month, and this downturn is now the fastest in 40 years (Monday 2 November)
• Tuesday's rate rise is almost priced in. The bigger question for your mortgage is whether 4.85% is the peak (Sunday 1 November)
• Inflation just hit 4.3%, and all four big banks now expect a rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day. Here's what it would cost you (Thursday 29 October)
• Auction volumes jumped a third last week, but clearance still sat under 50% (Tuesday 27 October)
• Rates are up, but some lenders are quietly changing the rules (Friday 23 October)
• One rate rise, many start dates: when the 0.25% actually hits your home loan (Thursday 8 October)

Sources: 1. Cotality, "Preliminary auction clearance rate falls to lowest since April 2020", 2 November 2026 — combined capitals preliminary clearance 47.2% (48.4% previous week), lowest since April 2020; 1,735 auctions, −7.3% on the week, −17.7% on a year ago; spring average 51.0%, winter average 52.3%; Sydney 53.8% on 731 (up 5.6 points, volumes 33% below a year ago); Melbourne 49.5% on 514 (−38% on the week, second-lowest preliminary result this year); Brisbane 26.2% on 238 (lowest of the capitals, fourth result under 30% in five weeks); Adelaide 46.5% on 144 (up 4 points, spring average 44.6%, sixth week below 50%); ACT 38.9% on 81; Perth 35% (https://www.cotality.com/au/press-releases/preliminary-auction-clearance-rate-falls-to-lowest-since-april-2020). 2. AAP, "Cagey buyers push home sales rates to post-pandemic low", 2 November 2026 — Thomas McGlynn quote; clearance below 60% points to a falling market; 4.85% highest since 2008; Canstar $456 a month on a $600,000 mortgage compared with the start of 2026; NSW underquoting reforms from 17 November and February, penalties up to $110,000 or three times commission; Victorian reserve-price transparency (https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/cagey-buyers-push-home-sales-rates-to-post-pandemic-low). 3. Australian Financial Review, "Auction clearances slump to six-year low on rate worries", 1 November 2026 — almost a quarter of scheduled auctions pulled, up from 11.2% a year ago, Cotality analysis (https://www.afr.com/property/residential/auction-clearances-slump-to-six-year-low-on-rate-worries-20261101-p61a82). 4. investingLive, "Deutsche Bank stands alone with RBA hold call as 31 of 32 economists tip a hike", citing a Reuters poll and the AFR — 31 of 32 expect 4.85% including the big four; markets about 85%; Phil O'Donoghue hold case (https://investinglive.com/central-banks/deutsche-bank-stands-alone-with-rba-hold-call-as-31-of-32-economists-tip-a-hike/). 5. Finder, "Finder's RBA Survey", 2 November 2026 — 30 of 40 expect a rise; 22 of 40 say the RBA should; 32 of 40 expect the cash rate above 4.60% by March 2027; 11 of 40 expect a further rise after November, most in February 2027; David Robertson comments (https://www.finder.com.au/news/finders-rba-survey-2-nov-2026).

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