Australian home values slipped again in September, the sixth month in a row. Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic) Home Value Index, released on Thursday 1 October, shows national dwelling values down 1.1% for the month and 5.2% below the record high set in March 2026. Adelaide fell 1.3%, one of the bigger drops among the capitals.
The short version
- National values fell 1.1% in September, the sixth straight monthly fall, and are now 5.2% below the March 2026 peak.
- Every capital city except Darwin (+0.4%) went backwards. Brisbane had the sharpest fall at 1.5%.
- Adelaide dropped 1.3%, taking its median dwelling value to about $928,560.
- 97% of capital city suburbs lost value over the three months to the end of September.
- The national median dwelling value is about $899,236, roughly where it was a year ago.
- Sales are down and homes are taking longer to sell: a median of 39 days in the capitals, up from 23 days a year ago.
How the capitals moved in September
Here’s the monthly change in dwelling values for the capitals Cotality and the coverage of its release reported figures for.
| Capital city | Change in September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Brisbane | −1.5% |
| Sydney | −1.4% |
| Adelaide | −1.3% |
| Perth | −1.2% |
| Melbourne | −0.7% |
| Darwin | +0.4% |
| National | −1.1% |
Sydney is still leading the correction, with values now 8.6% below their February peak. Cotality says that’s marginally deeper than at the same stage of the 2022–23 downturn. Melbourne is falling more gently now: it’s 7.2% below its cyclical high from November last year, and 7.5% below its March 2022 record.
Over 12 months the national result is flat (0.0%), but the spread is wide. Perth (+10.1%) and Darwin (+11.9%) are still well up on a year ago, while Sydney (−7.0%), Melbourne (−6.2%) and Canberra (−1.6%) are down. Regional areas are holding up better than the cities, with regional values up 5.6% over the year against a 1.8% fall across the combined capitals.
Adelaide has joined the softer markets
For a long time Adelaide was one of the stronger performers, so a 1.3% monthly fall stands out. Cotality noted that each of the mid-sized capitals was down more than 1% in September, a faster pace than Melbourne. According to InDaily’s report on the Cotality figures, Adelaide’s median dwelling value went from about $937,207 in August to about $928,560 in September, a drop of roughly $8,600 in a single month.
That’s a median, so it won’t match any one street or property. But it does mean the price you saw for a similar home six months ago may not be a good guide to today’s market.
Why values are falling
Cotality puts the downturn down to a mix of stretched affordability, higher interest rates, high living costs and weaker consumer sentiment, which together have cut how much buyers can borrow and how keen they are to buy. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, and the big four banks are passing that rise on to variable home loans from Friday 9 October. We covered the dates and likely costs in our article on the big four rate rise.
Cotality’s research director Tim Lawless also told InDaily that investors have become much less active, and that the federal government’s changes to investor tax breaks are having an effect alongside rates.
Fewer sales, more stock on the market
Cotality estimates national home sales over the past three months were 19.1% lower than a year ago and 13.3% below the previous five-year average. Across the combined capitals, new listings were 9.2% lower than a year ago, yet total stock for sale was 23.1% higher, because homes are selling more slowly than new ones are being listed.
As Lawless put it: “The lift in available stock is improving choice for buyers, but ironically, many prospective buyers don’t have the confidence or financial capacity to buy at the moment.”
What about renters and investors?
Rental markets have loosened a little. The ABC, citing Cotality, reported the national rental vacancy rate rose to 2.0% in September, up from a record low of 1.5% in February 2026, though still well below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%. Cotality’s figures also show national rents 5.5% higher over the year, and with values easing, gross rental yields have risen to 3.85%, the highest since August 2019. Higher rates still make positive cash flow hard to achieve, so a better yield on paper doesn’t automatically mean a property pays for itself.
Where to from here?
Nobody knows for sure, and we don’t make price forecasts. For context, here’s what two well-known commentators told the ABC:
- Tim Lawless (Cotality) said a national peak-to-trough fall of 10% to 15% is “probably a fairly reasonable estimate at the moment”, depending on how far interest rates rise.
- Shane Oliver (AMP) said he believes rates have peaked, while warning there’s still a high risk of one more hike. In a worst-case scenario, with a prolonged war, much higher oil prices and rising job losses, he said falls could reach 20%.
It’s also worth knowing that different indexes measure the market differently. PropTrack’s September report showed a smaller national fall of 0.2% for the month, leaving prices 3.3% below their March peak. Both show a market that has turned; they just disagree on how far.
What it means in practice
If you’re buying: you’ll likely have more choice and more time than you would have a year ago, and possibly more room to negotiate. The flip side is that higher rates reduce how much lenders will lend. If you have a pre-approval, check it still holds at today’s rates before you make an offer, and base your budget on repayments you can manage if rates move again, not on a guess about where prices are heading.
If you’re selling: homes are taking longer to sell, so price against recent comparable sales rather than last year’s peak. If you’re selling and buying at the same time, think about the order carefully, because a slower market can stretch the gap between the two.
If you own and you’re thinking of refinancing: your property’s value affects your loan-to-value ratio (LVR). If prices in your area have eased, a new valuation could come in lower than you expect, which can affect your rate options or whether lenders mortgage insurance applies. Getting an up-to-date idea of your property’s value before you apply can save surprises.
If your fixed rate is ending soon: work out what your repayments will look like on today’s variable rates, and leave enough time to compare your options before the fixed term rolls over.
Buying, selling or reviewing your loan in a softer market?
If you’d like to talk through how these changes might affect your plans, book a call. We’ll start with general information, and if you want personal recommendations we’ll do a proper fact-find first. There’s no cost and no pressure.
Sources: Cotality, “Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September”, Home Value Index release, 1 October 2026. InDaily, “Adelaide house prices join national freefall”, 1 October 2026 (Adelaide and national median values). ABC News, “Australian house prices drop for sixth straight month and more falls expected”, 1 October 2026 (rental vacancy, and comments from Tim Lawless and Shane Oliver). Australian Property Update, 2 October 2026 (Perth monthly change, rents and yields citing Cotality, and PropTrack comparison). Reserve Bank of Australia, monetary policy decision, 29 September 2026.
General information only — not credit advice. It doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account.
Loanworth Pty Ltd (Credit Representative Number 547934) and Kym Tram, trading as Loan Worth (Credit Representative Number 498798), are Credit Representatives of Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd (Australian Credit Licence 389328).