The Reserve Bank’s next cash rate decision lands on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 3 November. After four rate rises already this year, many borrowers are asking whether a fifth is a done deal. The short answer is no. The big four banks’ economists are split two-for-two, financial markets are leaning towards a hold, and the Reserve Bank has said it will be guided by the data. Here’s who expects what, the data that will shape the decision, and what you can do now rather than waiting.
The short version
- The cash rate is 4.60% after the Reserve Bank’s unanimous 0.25-point rise on 29 September, its fourth increase of 2026. It says it will lift rates “further if needed” and will be “attentive to the data”.
- The big four are split: Westpac and ANZ expect another 0.25-point rise in November, while CommBank and NAB expect a hold, though neither rules out a rise.
- At the close on Friday 9 October, ASX futures pricing implied about a 29% chance of a rise and a 71% chance of a hold. Those odds change daily.
- Watch the RBA minutes (13 October), September jobs figures (15 October) and September-quarter inflation (28 October).
- On a $500,000 loan, another 0.25% would add roughly $82 a month (Loanworth calculation, rounded, example only).
Where rates are now, and what the RBA said
On Tuesday 29 September the Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate target by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60%. It was the fourth rise of the year, after increases in February (to 3.85%), March (4.10%) and May (4.35%), and holds in June and August. The decision was unanimous.
The Board’s reasons were mostly about inflation. It said that “some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising”, pointing to higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and fuel costs flowing through to other prices. At the same time it acknowledged that earlier rises had tightened financial conditions and that “the economy appears to be slowing”.
The sentence borrowers are watching most closely is about what comes next. The Board said it “will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed. Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions.”
That leaves the door open to another rise without committing to one, which is why economists have reached different conclusions.
What the big four banks expect
As compiled by Aussie on 6 October, the major banks’ economists are evenly divided on the 3 November decision:
| Bank | November forecast | Cash rate if that forecast is right |
|---|---|---|
| Westpac | Rise of 0.25 points | 4.85% |
| ANZ | Rise of 0.25 points | 4.85% |
| CommBank | Hold (a rise is “live”, but not its base case) | 4.60% |
| NAB | Hold (a rise is flagged as a risk) | 4.60% |
Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the Board’s language and its unanimous vote had lowered the bar for a follow-up move, making a November rise Westpac’s base case unless the Middle East conflict is resolved or energy costs fall significantly.
ANZ has forecast a November rise since late August and says the August inflation figures haven’t changed that. Its economists expect trimmed mean inflation of around 1% for the September quarter, which they would see as a material upside surprise against the Reserve Bank’s August forecasts. ANZ describes a November rise as “more likely than not”.
CommBank economists read the Governor’s post-meeting press conference as raising the hurdle for another increase, but call the decision “finely balanced”. They say it will depend on September-quarter inflation, the labour market, household spending and the Middle East.
NAB chief economist Sally Auld has pointed to the Governor’s repeated emphasis on preserving the gains in the jobs market while bringing inflation down. NAB reads that as a sign the Board may be done raising rates for now, while acknowledging further tightening may be required.
The split suggests the decision will turn less on any one figure than on how the Board weighs inflation against signs that households and the jobs market are slowing. Further out, CommBank, NAB and Westpac see cuts potentially starting from August 2027 and ANZ from November 2027, but forecasts that far ahead can easily change.
What financial markets are pricing
Markets offer another gauge. Prices for ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures can be converted into an implied probability of a rate change, which is how the ASX’s own RBA Rate Tracker works.
At the close of trading on Friday 9 October, futures implied a cash rate of about 4.67% after the November meeting, which works out to roughly a 29% chance of a 0.25-point rise and a 71% chance of a hold, according to daily closing figures compiled by RBA Watch. The odds have moved around a lot since the September decision: about 42% on 29 September, as low as 18% on 5 October, then back to between 27% and 29% from 7 to 9 October.
So markets lean towards a hold, while two of the four major banks expect a rise. That gap is exactly why November isn’t locked in. Market odds are a snapshot and can swing sharply on a single data release.
The three releases that will shape the decision
The starting point. The ABS monthly Consumer Price Index for August, released on 30 September, showed headline inflation of 4.0% over the year, up from 3.5% in July. Trimmed mean inflation, the underlying measure the Reserve Bank watches closely, was 3.6%, unchanged for a third month. Both are above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target band. Fuel prices jumped 14.8% in August alone, and electricity was up 13.2% over the year, which the ABS says was largely because Commonwealth electricity rebates have ended. On jobs, the ABS Labour Force figures for August, released on 24 September, showed the unemployment rate up 0.2 points to 4.6%, although employment rose by 39,500.
- RBA minutes, Tuesday 13 October, 11:00am Adelaide time. The minutes of the 28–29 September meeting will show how the Board weighed its options, including the case for a further rise.
- Labour Force, September, Thursday 15 October, 11:00am Adelaide time. A softer result would support the case for a pause; a strong one would make it harder to argue the economy is cooling fast enough.
- Consumer Price Index, September and the September quarter, Wednesday 28 October, 11:00am Adelaide time. The big one. It includes the full quarterly inflation figures that feed into the Reserve Bank’s updated forecasts, less than a week before the decision. Don’t confuse it with the August monthly figure released on 30 September.
The decision itself will be announced at 2:00pm Adelaide time on Tuesday 3 November, alongside a new Statement on Monetary Policy, with the Governor’s media conference an hour later.
What another 0.25% would add to repayments
If the Reserve Bank did lift the cash rate again and your lender passed it on in full, here’s a rough guide to the extra cost. The example uses a 30-year principal-and-interest loan moving from 6.24% (Westpac’s lowest big-four variable rate after the 9 October rise, as reported by Aussie) to 6.49%.
| Loan amount | Monthly repayment at 6.24% | Monthly repayment at 6.49% | Extra each month |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $3,075 | $3,157 | about $82 |
| $600,000 | $3,690 | $3,788 | about $98 |
Loanworth calculation, rounded, example only. It assumes the full 0.25 points is passed on and the loan has 30 years left to run. Your actual change depends on your lender, your rate, your remaining term and whether you’re paying interest only.
What you can do now
Nobody can promise which way the Reserve Bank will go, including us. The useful question is whether your budget is ready for either outcome.
If you’re on a variable rate
You’ve probably just absorbed the September rise, or will soon, depending on your lender. Check your new repayment in your banking app. If you can, consider paying a little more than the minimum or keeping extra savings in an offset or redraw account. That builds a buffer if rates rise again and saves interest if they don’t.
If you’re thinking of fixing
Fixed rates already reflect some of what lenders expect, and several have risen faster than the cash rate. Fixing because you’re worried about November isn’t automatically cheaper. Compare the fixed rate with your variable rate, and check break costs and any limits on extra repayments or offset before you lock in.
If you’re buying
Lenders generally assess your application at the loan rate plus a serviceability buffer, typically 3 percentage points, so another 0.25-point rise would trim borrowing capacity again. If your pre-approval was issued before 29 September, ask for it to be rechecked closer to auction or exchange.
If you’re refinancing
If your rate is well above what lenders offer new customers, there’s no need to wait for 3 November to review it. A lower rate helps whatever the Reserve Bank decides.
Related reading
For what the September rise did to your repayment, read Big four variable rates rise today. What actually changes on your next repayment. If you’re weighing up fixing, see Fixed rates are rising faster than the cash rate. For how households are coping so far, read Most mortgage holders are still coping. Here’s what the RBA’s October Financial Stability Review says.
Not sure how another rise would hit your budget?
Book a no-obligation chat and we’ll run the numbers on your loan, including what a further rise would mean and the options you have now. We’ll start with general information, and if you want personal recommendations we’ll do a proper fact-find first. There’s no cost and no pressure.
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, media release 2026-27, “Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision”, 29 September 2026. Reserve Bank of Australia, cash rate target history and schedule of releases (minutes released 13 October 2026, 11.30am AEDT). Aussie, “What experts predict for the RBA’s November 2026 interest rate decision”, 6 October 2026. Investor Daily, “Big four split over RBA’s next move”, 1 October 2026. RBA Watch, November 2026 meeting page (ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures, daily closes from 29 September to 9 October 2026). ASX, RBA Rate Tracker (method). Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026 (released 30 September 2026). Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, August 2026 (released 24 September 2026). ABS release calendar. Repayment example: Loanworth calculation, rounded, example only. Bank forecasts are the views of the banks named and may change.
General information only, not credit advice. It doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account.
Loanworth Pty Ltd (Credit Representative Number 547934) is a Credit Representative of Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd (Australian Credit Licence 389328).