Spring is usually the busiest and strongest time of year for auctions. This year it isn’t working out that way. In the first weekend after the Reserve Bank’s 29 September rate rise, fewer than half of the homes that went to auction across the capital cities sold, and Brisbane recorded its lowest clearance rate since 2008. Here’s what the latest numbers say, city by city, why it’s happening, and what it means if you’re buying, selling or simply watching your home’s value.
The short version
- Cotality’s final clearance rate for the week ending Sunday 4 October was 45.4% across the combined capitals, the lowest since July. A year earlier it was 67.4%.
- Brisbane’s 21.2% was its lowest since November 2008. Adelaide had the biggest year-on-year fall of any capital: 32.9%, against 78.5% a year earlier.
- Cotality says the 0.25-point rate rise to 4.60% likely contributed, as buyers faced lower borrowing capacity and weaker confidence.
- This weekend, 1,821 homes were scheduled for auction, about 30% fewer than a year ago. Adelaide and Brisbane are the only capitals busier than last year.
- Buying at auction? Get your pre-approval rechecked at today’s rates first, because auction purchases are generally unconditional.
What a clearance rate actually measures
A clearance rate is the share of homes taken to auction that end up selling. Cotality, the most widely quoted source, counts homes sold before, at or shortly after auction, and divides that by all known auction results, including properties that were passed in (no bid reached the reserve) and those withdrawn from sale. It publishes a preliminary figure on Sunday from the results collected over the weekend, then a final figure each Thursday once the rest of the results come in.
Two points help when reading the numbers. First, the final figure is often lower than the preliminary one. Last week, for example, Cotality’s preliminary 48.2% became 45.4% in the final count. Second, small markets can swing sharply. Cotality treats any result based on fewer than 10 auctions as statistically unreliable, which matters for Perth, where very few homes are sold by auction.
There’s no official line between a strong and a weak result, but a clearance rate in the high 60s or above has usually gone with a market where buyers are competing hard, while results in the 40s are well below what you’d normally expect in a strong market.
The latest numbers, city by city
Cotality’s final results for the week ending 4 October, published on Thursday 8 October, show the combined capitals clearance rate slipping from 46.0% to 45.4%. It hasn’t been lower since 19 July, when it was 45.3%, and it’s 22.0 percentage points below the same week last year.
Volumes were light because of the long weekend in New South Wales, South Australia, Queensland and the ACT. Just 1,212 auctions were held across the capitals, 38.1% fewer than the 1,958 a year earlier. Because both years included the October long weekend, Cotality notes that the fall in clearance rates can’t be put down to the holiday.
| City | Final clearance rate | Week before | Auctions held | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 50.4% | 47.9% | 666 | −16.1 pts |
| Sydney | 49.3% | 48.4% | 299 | −19.0 pts |
| Canberra | 34.5% | 51.9% | 29 | −33.9 pts |
| Adelaide | 32.9% | 37.6% | 70 | −45.6 pts |
| Brisbane | 21.2% | 32.9% | 138 | −44.3 pts |
| Combined capitals | 45.4% | 46.0% | 1,212 | −22.0 pts |
Melbourne and Sydney, the two biggest auction markets, both improved slightly on the week before, but both remain around half. The smaller capitals did worse. Brisbane’s clearance rate dropped 11.7 points in a week to 21.2%, its lowest since 30 November 2008. Canberra had the steepest weekly fall, from 51.9% to 34.5%, with 10 of its 29 auctions selling. In Perth, three of eight auctions sold, too few to read much into.
The year-on-year comparison is the striking part. Clearance rates fell in every capital that held auctions in the same week last year. The smallest falls were in Melbourne and Sydney, at 16.1 and 19.0 points. Among the smaller capitals, the falls ranged from 33.9 points in Canberra to 45.6 points in Adelaide.
Why fewer homes are selling under the hammer
The timing points to interest rates. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60% on 29 September, and lenders have been passing the rise on to variable home loans through October. Cotality said in its preliminary results release that last week’s cash rate increase “likely contributed to the weaker result, as prospective buyers faced reduced borrowing capacity and subdued confidence.”
Cotality economist Annabelle Mezieres put it more directly in comments to Smart Property Investment: “Higher rates are reducing the amount some buyers can borrow and limiting their willingness or ability to stretch their budgets.”
That’s the mechanism worth understanding. An auction works best when several buyers are prepared to keep bidding. When rates go up, lenders work out a smaller maximum loan for the same income, because they test whether you could still afford the repayments at a rate above the one you’d actually pay. Fewer buyers can reach the vendor’s reserve, and those who can are more cautious about going past their limit. The result is more homes passed in, more vendors withdrawing or selling beforehand, and fewer homes selling on the day.
It also fits the wider picture. Cotality’s September Home Value Index showed national dwelling values down 1.1% for the month, the sixth monthly fall in a row, with Adelaide down 1.3%. We covered those figures in our 5 October article on home values, linked below.
What’s happening this weekend
Activity has picked up after the long weekend, but volumes are still well down on last year. Cotality counted 1,821 homes scheduled for auction across the capitals for the week ending today, Sunday 11 October, compared with 2,587 in the same week last year, or about 29.6% fewer.
- Sydney: 720 scheduled, 27.1% fewer than a year ago.
- Melbourne: 663 scheduled, 46.9% fewer than a year ago, the largest fall of any mainland capital.
- Brisbane: 205 scheduled, up 61.4% on 127 a year ago.
- Adelaide: 148 scheduled, up 54.2% on 96 a year ago.
- Canberra: 71 scheduled, 33.0% fewer than a year ago. Perth: 14.
Cotality expects about 1,500 auctions next weekend and about 1,600 the weekend after, so the usual spring build-up looks muted this year.
Saturday’s early results are a reminder that the headline clearance rate doesn’t tell the whole story. Domain’s preliminary Sydney results for the week to Saturday 10 October showed 176 of 807 scheduled auctions withdrawn, a sign that many vendors pulled their homes or sold before auction day rather than test the room. Domain uses a different method and sample from Cotality, and its numbers are early results that are likely to change as more come in, so they shouldn’t be read side by side with Cotality’s. Cotality’s own preliminary figures for this weekend are due on Monday.
A closer look at Adelaide
Adelaide shows how a market can get busier and softer at the same time. It was one of only two capitals, with Tasmania, to hold more auctions last week than a year earlier, and this weekend it had 148 homes scheduled, more than double the 70 held over the long weekend. But a much smaller share is selling. Cotality’s final clearance rate for Adelaide was 32.9%, down from 37.6% the week before and well below the 78.5% recorded a year earlier.
One reading is that more vendors are choosing auction to find out what buyers will pay in a falling market, while buyers have less to spend and more homes to choose from. Whatever the reason, Adelaide buyers and sellers shouldn’t assume this spring will look like last spring.
What it means for you
If you’re buying
Fewer competing bidders can mean more room to negotiate. You may be able to make an offer before auction, or talk to the agent after a property is passed in, when the vendor may be more open to a sensible price. That said, a quieter market isn’t a reason to stretch.
The most important step is to check what you can borrow at today’s rates. Lenders assess your application at the loan rate plus a serviceability buffer, typically 3 percentage points, so a pre-approval issued before 29 September may now be for a lower amount. Ask for it to be reviewed before auction day. Buying at auction is generally unconditional, with no finance clause and no cooling-off period, so you need to be confident the loan will be there before you bid.
If you’re selling or upsizing
Expect campaigns to take longer and plan for the possibility of a pass-in. If you’re buying your next home before you’ve sold, talk through timing and options such as bridging finance before you commit, so you aren’t caught carrying two loans for longer than you planned.
If you’re not moving
Clearance rates don’t change your loan. But if values keep easing, the equity in your home can shrink, which affects your loan-to-value ratio (LVR) if you plan to refinance or borrow against your property. If refinancing is on your list, it’s worth checking where your LVR sits now rather than relying on last year’s valuation.
Related reading
For what’s happening to prices, read Home values fall for a sixth straight month: what Cotality’s September figures mean. For what the rate rise does to your repayment, see Big four variable rates rise today. The Reserve Bank’s next cash rate decision is due on Tuesday 3 November.
Thinking of buying at auction this spring?
Get your pre-approval checked at today’s rates before auction day. We’ll go through what lenders are likely to offer on your numbers and what you need in place before you bid. We’ll start with general information, and if you want personal recommendations we’ll do a proper fact-find first. It’s a no-obligation chat, with no cost and no pressure.
Sources: Cotality, “Final Clearance Rates – week ending 4 October 2026”, including the auction market preview for the week ending 11 October 2026, 8 October 2026. Cotality, “Combined capitals clearance rate falls to 48.2%, the lowest since June”, 6 October 2026. Cotality, Weekly Auction Results page (clearance rate method). Property Buzz, “Clearance rate falls to 48.2% after rate rise: Cotality”, 8 October 2026 (Annabelle Mezieres comments to Smart Property Investment). Domain, Sydney auction results, Sunday 4 to Saturday 10 October 2026 (preliminary, updated 10 October 2026). Reserve Bank of Australia, media release 2026-27, 29 September 2026. Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026, as reported in our 5 October 2026 article.
General information only, not credit advice. It doesn’t take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account.
Loanworth Pty Ltd (Credit Representative Number 547934) is a Credit Representative of Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd (Australian Credit Licence 389328).