At 11:00am Adelaide time today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the September-quarter inflation figures. It is the last big piece of data the Reserve Bank will see before it decides on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 3 November, whether to lift the cash rate for a fifth time this year. Here's the one number to watch, what the banks expect, what another rise would cost, and why the cheapest variable rates are getting harder to find.
The short version
- The September-quarter CPI is due at 11:00am Adelaide time (11:30am AEDT) today. The figure to watch is the quarterly trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation.
- The RBA's August forecast was 0.8% for the quarter. The big four banks expect 0.9% to 1.0%. These are forecasts, not results.
- The banks are split two-two on a November rise: ANZ and Westpac expect one, CBA and NAB expect a hold, with CBA saying the risk of a rise has grown.
- Canstar estimates a 0.25% rise would add about $92 a month on a $600,000 loan, and $456 a month in total since the start of this year's hikes.
- Canstar now counts 12 variable rates under 6%, down from 19 a week earlier. Cash rate: 4.60%.
The number that matters
Inflation gets reported several ways, and the headline figure will probably look high because of petrol. The RBA puts more weight on the trimmed mean. It strips out the biggest price rises and falls each period, so a one-off jump in fuel or a temporary rebate doesn't swamp the picture. Think of it as the RBA's read on how broad and sticky price rises really are.
The benchmark is the RBA's own forecast. In August it expected the trimmed mean to rise 0.8% over the September quarter. A result around there would suggest inflation is broadly tracking the RBA's script. A result of 1.0% or more would put it ahead of that script, and make a Cup Day rise more likely. A soft surprise below 0.8% would take some pressure off.
The last official reading, for the 12 months to August, had headline inflation at 4.0% (up from 3.5% in July) and the trimmed mean at 3.6%. The RBA's target is 2–3%. Canstar's Sally Tindall noted the trimmed mean has sat at 3.6% since June: "If trimmed mean clocks in again at 3.6%, it will officially be groundhog day."
What the big four banks expect
Here's what the four major banks forecast for the September quarter, as reported by Savings.com.au on 23 October. Forecasts, not results:
| Bank | Headline (quarter / year) | Trimmed mean (quarter / year) | November call |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBA | 1.3% / 3.9% | 1.0% / 3.6% | Hold (risk of a rise growing) |
| NAB | 1.2% / 3.9% | 1.0% / 3.6% | Hold |
| Westpac | 1.3% / 3.9% | 0.9% / 3.5% | Rise |
| ANZ | 1.3% / 3.9% | 1.0% / 3.6% | Rise |
If the trimmed mean lands at 1.0%, it would be the fifth quarter in a row between 0.8% and 1.0%. CommBank's Trent Saunders said a 1.0% result is unlikely to surprise the RBA, given how strong July and August were, but that the decision will "depend heavily on the outcome and composition" of today's figures. AMP's Diana Mousina put the line more bluntly in a note reported by Capital Brief: "If the trimmed mean is higher than 1%, then a November rate hike is likely."
The main drivers flagged are fuel, after the end of the excise discount and the global oil shock, and services. CBA expects petrol prices rose about 9.8% in September alone, after a 14.8% jump in August.
What markets are pricing
Market odds move every day, so treat these as snapshots with dates attached. CBA's rates team said market-implied odds of a November rise jumped from about 24% to 56% after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on 21 October that the inflation outlook looked "materially worse" (we covered that speech on Saturday). Separately, Capital Brief reported on 25 October that markets were pricing about an 80% chance of a rise by December. That is not the same as November, and the two figures shouldn't be merged.
On the other side of the ledger, unemployment rose to 4.7% in September, a five-year high. That is the RBA's dilemma: inflation still too high, jobs softening. Today's figure is likely to tip the balance one way or the other.
What another rise would cost
Canstar estimates a 0.25% November rise would add about $92 a month to repayments on a $600,000 owner-occupier loan. For someone whose $600,000 loan dates back to before this year's hikes began, a November rise would make five increases in 2026 and lift monthly repayments by about $456 in total. "That's basically an extra half a grand that a typical borrower has to shell out in post-tax dollars, every single month for the foreseeable future," Tindall said.
These are the same loan size and source as the figures in our Saturday piece, now restated by Canstar on 27 October. They're illustrations, not your numbers. A smaller loan or shorter remaining term means a smaller dollar change; a bigger loan, a bigger one. As a rough guide, Canstar's $92 works out at about $15 a month for every $100,000 owed.
Meanwhile, the cheapest rates are thinning out
While the market waits on today's number, lenders have been nudging prices both ways. According to Canstar's weekly wrap, last week three lenders lifted 18 owner-occupier and investor variable rates by an average of 0.24 percentage points, while three lenders cut 10 rates by an average of 0.08 points. Tindall called it "a market in a holding pattern."
The more telling number is at the cheap end. Canstar's database now lists 12 variable rates under 6%, down from 19 the week before. A week ago three lenders shared the lowest variable rate; now Bank Orange is cited alone at 5.89% for any loan-to-value ratio. The average owner-occupier principal-and-interest variable rate is 6.84%. That gap of nearly a full percentage point between the sharpest deals and the average is why a rate review can matter more than the RBA's next move. Our 21 October piece covered the floor as it stood that week; today's count shows the cheap end getting narrower.
One smaller change worth knowing about if you're comparing: Qantas Money now offers a ColCap-funded (non-bank) loan alongside its Bendigo-funded range. Tindall noted the bigger trade-off is the offset. Bendigo offers a separate offset account, while ColCap uses a "sub-offset" held inside the loan. If an offset matters to you, check exactly how it's structured before you switch.
What you can do before 3 November
- Watch the trimmed mean, not the headline. Around 0.8% is what the RBA expected. 1.0% or above makes a Cup Day rise more likely. Petrol will make the headline number look worse than the underlying picture.
- Budget as if the rise is coming. If you're on a variable rate, set aside the extra now (about $92 a month per $600,000 on Canstar's estimate) and treat a hold as a bonus. Building a buffer in your offset or redraw helps either way.
- Review your rate while the sharp deals are still there. With sub-6% rates down from 19 to 12 in a week, the window for the lowest pricing may be narrowing. Compare comparison rates, not just headline rates, and factor in fees and any switching costs.
- Thinking of fixing? Fixed rates already price in expected rises. Fixing can give certainty, but it's a trade-off, not a guaranteed win, and break costs apply if you exit early.
- Buying soon? Lenders assess your application at your rate plus a buffer (commonly 3 percentage points), so another rise reduces how much you can borrow. If you have pre-approval, get it reviewed before you bid or sign.
- If repayments are already tight, talk to your lender early. Hardship arrangements exist, and the National Debt Helpline is free on 1800 007 007.
Key dates
- Today, Wednesday 28 October, 11:00am Adelaide time (11:30am AEDT): ABS Consumer Price Index, September quarter 2026.
- Tuesday 3 November, 2:00pm Adelaide time (2:30pm AEDT): RBA Monetary Policy Decision, Melbourne Cup Day. Cash rate today: 4.60%.
Related reading
- The RBA just said inflation looks "materially worse" (Saturday 24 October)
- The lowest variable home loan rates just reshuffled (Wednesday 21 October — the floor as it stood that week)
- Unemployment just hit a five-year high (Friday 16 October)
- Is another rate rise in November already locked in? (Monday 12 October)
- Advertised rate or comparison rate? Which number to look at and Fixed rates are rising faster than the cash rate
Not sure how another rise would hit your budget?
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Sources: 1. Australian Broker, Mina Martin, "Variable home loan rates split as sub-6% offers dwindle", 27 October 2026 — Canstar estimates: +$92/month on $600,000 for a 0.25% November rise; +$456/month cumulative over five 2026 rises; 18 rates up avg 0.24 pts, 10 cut avg 0.08 pts; 12 sub-6% variable rates (19 the week before); Bank Orange 5.89%; average owner-occupier P&I variable 6.84%; Qantas Money / ColCap sub-offset (https://www.brokernews.com.au/news/breaking-news/variable-home-loan-rates-split-as-sub6-offers-dwindle-290211.aspx). 2. Savings.com.au, Bernadette Lunas, "Stubborn inflation expected ahead of key RBA rates decision", 23 October 2026 — big four September-quarter forecasts; RBA 0.8% forecast; ANZ/Westpac rise vs CBA/NAB hold (https://www.savings.com.au/news/stubborn-inflation-seen-ahead-of-key-rba-rates-decision). 3. CommBank Newsroom, "September data will keep inflation pressure on RBA", 22 October 2026 — Trent Saunders; fuel +9.8% in September after +14.8% in August; market-implied November odds 24% to 56% after Hauser (https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/10/inflation-cpi-rba-interest-rates-november.html). 4. Capital Brief, Jennifer Duke, 25 October 2026 — Bloomberg consensus trimmed mean 1.0% q/q, 3.6% y/y; ~80% chance of a rise by December; Diana Mousina (AMP) quote. 5. ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026 (headline 4.0%, trimmed mean 3.6%) and September quarter 2026 release, 28 October 2026 (https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release). 6. ABS Labour Force, September 2026 (unemployment 4.7%). 7. RBA cash rate target 4.60%; next Monetary Policy Decision Tuesday 3 November 2026, 2:30pm AEDT.
General information only, not credit advice.
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