Spring is meant to be the busy season for Australian property. Instead, Cotality's October Housing Chart Pack, published today, shows September sales down about a fifth on a year ago and homes taking six weeks to sell. Separately, a survey of hundreds of property professionals — most of them valuers — expects prices to keep falling into 2027 before a recovery. Here's what the numbers say, why it matters that valuers hold that view, and what it means if you're buying, selling, refinancing or just watching your equity.
The short version
- About 39,747 homes sold nationally in September, down 20.9% on September 2025 (Cotality, 15 October 2026).
- Median time to sell is 41 days nationally (up from 26 a year earlier); combined capitals 39 days, the longest in five years.
- National values fell 1.1% in September (sixth monthly fall), and are 5.2% below the March 2026 peak.
- Australian Property Institute survey respondents expect an 8% to 11% peak-to-trough fall, with a recovery from about the September quarter of 2027.
- Cash rate still 4.60%. Next RBA decision: 2:00pm Adelaide time, Tuesday 3 November.
What the latest numbers show
Cotality's Monthly Housing Chart Pack for October 2026 landed this morning. It paints a cooler picture than the usual spring bounce:
- Sales: an estimated 39,747 homes sold nationally in September, down 20.9% on the same month last year.
- Time on market: the national median rose to 41 days from 26 a year earlier. Across the combined capitals it was 39 days (from 23), the longest selling period in five years. Homes sold fastest in Perth (26 days) and slowest in Canberra (50 days).
- Listings vs stock: new listings in the four weeks to 11 October were 7.9% lower than a year ago (36,440 homes, 11.9% below the five-year average). Yet total advertised stock is up 19.1% at 145,573. Homes are piling up faster than buyers are buying.
- Discounts: capital-city vendors are cutting asking prices by a median 4.4% to reach the sale price — the highest level in five years, according to Cotality's body text. The regional median discount is 3.9%.
That lines up with what we saw in early October auctions. Clearance rates have been soft since the late-September rate rise; see our 11 October auction clearance piece for the weekend numbers. Today's chart pack is the broader monthly read on sales, stock and selling times.
Where values are, and where valuers think they're headed
National dwelling values fell 1.1% in September — the sixth monthly decline in a row — and 3.7% over the September quarter. They are now 5.2% below the March 2026 peak. Sydney fell 4.9% over the quarter and sits 8.6% below its February peak. Melbourne fell 3.4% over the quarter. Brisbane and Perth each fell 4.7% over the quarter (still up 5.9% and 10.1% over the year, reflecting earlier gains). Darwin was the only capital up, by 0.5%.
We covered the September Home Value Index move in our 5 October Cotality values article. Today's pack adds the sales, stock and discounting detail around those falls.
The forward-looking piece is the Australian Property Institute survey, reported on 13–14 October. It covered 384 property professionals, 73% of them valuers. Respondents expect total peak-to-trough falls of 8% to 11% from the March peak, with a recovery from about the September quarter of 2027. By state, they tip 11% in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia; 9% in South Australia; and 8% in Tasmania.
That matters because valuers' assessments underpin lending decisions. If the people who value homes for banks expect further falls into 2027, borrowers should plan for valuations that may come in softer than a year ago — especially on a refinance or a purchase near the top of a price guide.
For context, CommBank economists in September forecast a national fall of about 9% peak to trough (around 13% in Sydney and 12% in Melbourne). Those are forecasts, not facts. Markets can move sooner or later than surveys suggest.
| City | Below peak (Cotality, 30 Sep) | API state forecast fall |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 8.6% | 11% (NSW) |
| Melbourne | 7.5% | 11% (Victoria) |
| Perth | 6.0% | 11% (WA) |
| Brisbane | 5.4% | 11% (Queensland) |
| Adelaide | 2.9% | 9% (South Australia) |
| Hobart | 2.0% | 8% (Tasmania) |
Below-peak figures: Cotality values as at 30 September 2026, cited by the API (Business News Australia, 13 October). Forecast falls: API survey of 384 professionals (reported 13–14 October). Forecasts are not guarantees.
Adelaide sits near the milder end so far: 2.9% below peak, with South Australia tipped for a 9% total fall and the most upbeat state outlook score in the API survey (5.6 out of 10, just above neutral). The national outlook index is 4.3 out of 10 (5 is neutral) — the lowest of the five quarters charted. Victoria is weakest at 3.7; NSW is 4.1. Western Australia (5.5) and Tasmania (5.1) are also just above neutral.
Why it's happening
Cotality Research Director Tim Lawless put it plainly: buyers aren't only dealing with reduced borrowing power. “They're also weighing up higher repayments and the prospect of further price falls, which is making some reluctant to commit even if they can afford to buy.”
On borrowing power, Cotality estimates the four rate rises since February have cut a median-income household's capacity by about $90,000, or 9%. The cash rate is 4.60% after the unanimous September move. The next decision is Tuesday 3 November at 2:00pm Adelaide time. We walked through the Board's tone in yesterday's RBA September minutes article, and the broader November setup in our 12 October November outlook.
API research head Sherman Chan told AAP the same confidence story: “People are worried about more interest rate hikes on the horizon, and they are after greater clarity.” In the API survey, the biggest risks named were further rate rises (80% of respondents), inflation and cost of living (65.1%), negative gearing changes (61.2%) and capital gains tax changes (59.6%). The recovery timing in the survey lines up with the negative gearing and CGT changes from 1 July 2027 announced in the May Budget. That's a policy date, not a Loanworth forecast — and we can't give tax advice; talk to your accountant about how those rules may apply to you.
Regions and renters
Regional Australia is holding up better than the capitals. Regional values fell 1.9% over the September quarter versus 4.3% for the combined capitals. Over the year, regional values were still up 5.6%, while capital-city values were down 1.8%.
Rents are still rising, but more slowly: up 0.5% over the September quarter (the slowest since December 2024) and 5.5% over the year. Gross rental yields have lifted to 3.85% nationally — the highest since August 2019 — as values have slipped. Cotality's national rental vacancy rate was 2.0% in September, up from 1.5% in February but still below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%.
What it means for you
If you're buying
More stock, longer selling times and 4.4% capital-city discounts mean less pressure to rush. You often have more room to negotiate than you did a year ago. But borrowing power is down about $90,000 for a typical median-income household on Cotality's estimate, so get a clear picture of what you can borrow on today's rates and serviceability — not last year's. Don't try to time the exact bottom. The API's 8–11% and CommBank's roughly 9% are educated guesses; buy when the numbers work for you and you can handle another rate rise if it comes.
If you're selling
Price for today's market. With homes taking about six weeks to sell nationally, an ambitious guide that worked in early 2026 can leave a listing going stale. If you're buying and selling at the same time, think carefully about the order — and talk to a lender about bridging or settlement timing before you sign anything unconditional.
If you're refinancing
Falling values can push your loan-to-value ratio (LVR) up. That can affect your rate tier, or whether lenders mortgage insurance applies above 80% LVR. Check a realistic current value before you apply, and don't assume last year's valuation still holds.
If you bought recently with a small deposit
Most owners still have a cushion. The RBA's September minutes noted that very few borrowers are in negative equity, and that this would likely remain the case even with a 20% price fall. Keep up repayments and use your offset or redraw to build a buffer if you can.
If you're an investor
Gross yields at 3.85% are the highest since 2019, which helps income against purchase price — but weigh that against higher rates, softer capital growth and the 2027 tax changes. Get proper tax advice; we can't give it.
Related reading
- Home values fall for a sixth straight month: what Cotality's September figures mean (5 October)
- Fewer than half of spring auctions are selling (11 October)
- The RBA's minutes are out: what the Board said about more rate rises (14 October)
- Is another rate rise in November already locked in? (12 October)
Thinking about buying, selling or refinancing in a slower market?
Book a no-obligation chat and we'll work through the numbers with you — borrowing power on today's rates, what a softer valuation could mean for your LVR, and whether your current loan still stacks up. We'll start with general information, and if you want personal recommendations we'll do a proper fact-find first. There's no cost and no pressure.
Sources: Cotality, “Monthly Housing Chart Pack – October 2026”, 15 October 2026. Business News Australia, “Property valuers don't expect a housing recovery until late 2027 as their near-term outlook slides”, 13 October 2026 (Australian Property Institute survey of 384 professionals). AAP via CommBank Newsroom, “House prices tipped to keep sliding for another year: API survey”, 14 October 2026. AAP via The Queenslander, regional values wrap, 15 October 2026. Reserve Bank of Australia, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Board Meeting 28–29 September 2026 (negative-equity scenario). Cash rate 4.60%; next decision 2:30pm AEDT (2:00pm Adelaide time) Tuesday 3 November 2026. Forecasts attributed to the API and CommBank economists are theirs alone and can change. Not tax advice.
General information only, not credit advice. It doesn't take your objectives, financial situation or needs into account.
Loanworth Pty Ltd (Credit Representative Number 547934) is a Credit Representative of Connective Credit Services Pty Ltd (Australian Credit Licence 389328).